lay the draw

What is Lay the Draw?

Lay the Draw (LTD) is a popular football trading strategy used on betting exchanges like Betfair. The core idea is to lay the draw at the beginning of the match and trade out after a goal is scored. The assumption is that most football matches won’t end in a draw, and a goal will cause the draw odds to drift, allowing traders to secure a profit.

How Does It Work?

You lay the draw before kickoff, say at odds of 3.50.
If a goal is scored, the draw odds usually jump (e.g., to 5.00 or more).
You then back the draw at the higher odds to lock in a profit using the cash-out function or manually balancing the positions.
If the match ends in a draw, you lose the liability amount.

When to Use the Lay the Draw Strategy

Teams with strong offensive play and weak defense.
Games where a draw is unlikely due to team motivation or league standings.
High goal expectation matches based on statistical models (over 2.5 goals).
Preferably select matches where the Over 2.5 market shows a drop of more than 20% from the opening odds. Even better, target matches with a 40%+ drop and an OCI (Odds Comparison Indicator) from TxOdds ranging between 20 and 40.
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Risks and How to Minimize Them

If the game stays 0-0 or returns to a draw after a goal (e.g., 1-1), you may face losses. To mitigate risk:

Exit the trade around the 60th minute if no goal has been scored.
Consider partially cashing out after the first goal.
Use proper bankroll management and limit liability per trade.

Lay the Draw Example

Match: Roma vs Napoli
Lay Draw at odds of 3.50 with €100 stake (liability: €250).
If a goal is scored and odds rise to 5.50, you back the draw with €63.64.
This locks in a profit of about €36.36 regardless of the outcome.

Lay the Draw is a strategic, popular method in football trading. With proper analysis, timing, and risk management, it can yield consistent profits. Always evaluate the match context and avoid overexposure to high-liability trades.